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“What the Future Holds”
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Posted on February 4, 2009

Welcome to the first edition for Bradshaw-Kimbrel’s guide to marketing in the information age. Our goal is to make available all of our resources to help you better understand the new landscapes of how business is getting done.

What makes our country so influential is how we constantly strive to improve our daily lives. Through this necessity amazing innovations have been born. We are a nation of ideas and for many years this has served us extremely well. With that in mind few if anyone could argue that the Internet is one of the most significant discoveries we have made over the last century. Even more so for business the Internet has become the great equalizer. It has created more efficient production, increased accountability, and maximized competition.  By the same token history tells us that what we are seeing now is only the beginning with more fantastic things to come.

 

The S-Curve

 

The S-CurveTo accurately gauge what to expect as our entire way of communicating evolves we need to compare with similar advancements from the past. Strangely enough most lifestyle changing events follow a similar path that can be tracked by measurable format. The S-Curve is an economic theory that illustrates the ways that new innovations and ideas grow into society.  As you can see from the illustration most ideas grow in three different phases.

 

 The first phase is commonly referred to as the Innovation Phase where the anticipated growth is from 0 to 10 percent penetration. During this time the new idea is going through a period of development. It is slowly being refined and groomed to be more efficient and less expensive. Generally during this phase it is reserved for a specific group of individuals and is very costly. Also during this time it goes through many changes while people are discovering the limitations and possibilities.

 

The second phase of our illustration is between 10 and 90 percent and is referred to as the Growth Phase. After the refinement process it goes through in the Innovation Phase it comes out ready to be distributed to the masses. Generally speaking it can be made faster and with less expense and is seen as an essential tool to stay ahead. What is most surprising about this phase however is the amount of time it takes to complete the cycle,  known as Critical Mass. Based on history these tools take the same amount of time proportionately in each cycle. Meaning the time period between 0-10 is the same as 10-90. As impossible as this seems think back to when mobile phones first came out. The first mobile phone ever used was in 1974, however, they were not even available to the masses until 1984. Between the years of 1985 and 1994 mobile subscribers grew from 340,000 to over 24 million. From that year to today it has grown from a little over 33 million to over 250 million and that is just in the United States. To put that in perspective there are a little more than 300 million people in the United States including seniors and children and at this point total penetration is over 80 percent. During this phase it has also been observed that the businesses that engage within the first half of growth (or between 10 and 50 percent) stand the best chance for profit and market share.  

 

The final phase is referred to as the Maturity Phase. In this phase the new product has become an essential part of our lives. It is now common throughout our society and leaves very little room for proportionate growth.

 

How this relates to our topic is substantial. When the Internet was first introduced it was available only to the government. However, when it was finally available to the public it was nowhere near capable of what it can do today. In the beginning only big companies had or even needed a web presence. Few people trusted the technology and for all intended purposes it was used only by a specific portion of society. Now however we are dead in the middle of this growth curve of consumers using the Internet to shop. Ninety-three percent (93%) of Internet users state that they have used the Internet at least one time or another for something related to e-commerce. Eighty-one percent (81%) say they have used the Internet to do research on a product they were thinking of buying with Twenty percent (20%) doing this on a typical day .The trend still stands that many are concerned about giving out personal information for making purchases although using the Internet to make consumers’ final decisions is growing at an exponential rate.  Soon enough having a web presence will be as common as having a phone for your business.  So as you can see this is an exciting time in history happening right in front of us. Thankfully the people or businesses that know what is happening will not only survive but strive in this new economy.

 

Now that you have taken the time to gain some insight into things to come, we hope that this column will continue to inform you about how technology is continuously evolving and become a resource for your business in an ever changing global market.  We encourage you to provide feedback, good or bad, about our discussions.  If you have a question, idea, or problem that we can help with don’t hesitate to let us know.  Chances are you not alone and many other business owners can benefit from your input.  

 

The Final Thought

 

The person who said that “knowledge is power” is only half right.  Knowledge without any application does little to change an outcome and does no justice for the source or the beneficiary.  So make sure to not only learn the lessons that come to you, but also apply them.  In doing so, you may prevent the hassle of having to learn them again.

 

by Frederick E. West III and Timothy C. Bradshaw

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project

 

 

 


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